11 PM EDT Update on Earl...Earl is Moving Away from Puerto Rico

Here is the latest advisory on Category 4 Hurricane Earl:

HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 65.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com. George is also a meteorologist with Cablevision News 12.

GFS Model Forecasts for Hurricane Earl

The GFS weather forecast model continues to indicate that a strong trough will move into the Northeast from the Midwest and stear Hurricane Earl out to sea to the northeast on Friday of this week. Clouds and showers may graze New York City with a better chance for tropical showers over eastern Long Island. Strong rip currents and rough seas will keep boats and bathers out of the water at all area beaches as this very strong storm tracks up the east coast. More on this storm later in the week.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com. George is also a meteorologist with Cablevision News 12.

Latest on Hurricane Earl...Now a Category 3 Storm

This is the latest hurricane discussion and forecast track from the National Hurricane Center.

HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM BOTH SAN JUAN AND ST. MAARTEN. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 111 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL AROUND 1200 UTC. THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT SAMPLED THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AGAIN...BUT FOUND 90 KT SFMR WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 960 MB. THIS SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KT...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING EARL AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME...ALTHOUGH EYEWALL CYCLES COULD INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13. EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES IN 4-5 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AGAIN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com. George is also a meteorologist with Cablevision News 12.

Rare Fire Tornado in Brazil

From Digital Journal:

San Paulo - A fire tornado has been caught on video near Sao Paulo, Brazil, where the humidity is almost desert-like. This rare phenomenon is caused by brush fires and dry winds. Fire tornadoes form when a warm updraft and wildfire meet. They are usually 30-200 feet tall, 10 ft wide, and last only a few minutes. However, some can be more than 1/2 mile tall and persist for more than 20 minutes. The largest on record occurred in 1923, when a giant fire tornado was ignited by an earthquake in Tokyo which led to the deaths of 38,000 people in 15 minutes. Wild fires have tripled this year in Brazil. Burning trees, an outdated method of razing the forest for crop fields is still being used. Although federal laws have been passed to ban the practice, it is also commonplace for sugarcane fields to be burned prior to harvest to "facilitate harvesting, fertilize fields with ash and remove venomous animals and reptiles".

Watch the video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssn2kmNf0ME

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com. George is also a meteorologist with Cablevision News 12.

Cool and Wet the Last Few Days in NYC Metro Area

It has felt like autumn here in the NYC metro area with highs only at 70 degrees in Central Park on August 23, 2010 and August 24, 2010. Lows have been in the mid to upper 60s since Sunday and through August 24, 2010 a total of 2.76 inches of rain has fallen in Central Park. A very slow moving coastal low has kept us in a cool onshore flow with periods of rain. There was heavy rain and flooding in the Lower Hudson Valley Sunday night with more than 5 inches of rain in parts of the area. Also, there was heavy rain and flooding in parts of Long Island.


George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com. George is also a meteorologist with Cablevision News 12.

July 2010 Was the 2nd Warmest in Central Park...

July 2010 was the 2nd warmest July (and month) on record in Central Park. The average was 81.3 degrees which is 4.8 degrees above normal. The warmest month on record in Central Park was set back in 1999, 81.4 degrees or just a tenth of a degree warmer than July 2010. We'll see showers and thunderstorms in the NYC metro area Sunday through Wednesday with nice dry weather late in the week into the weekend.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com. George is also a meteorologist with Cablevision News 12.