Thursday, December 20, 2012

Midwest Blizzard with Another Storm in the Pacific Northwest

The weather map today shows a strong area of low pressure moving northeast across northern Missouri this morning.  Blizzard Warnings are posted for six states in the track of this storm including parts of northwest Illinois, northwest Missouri, southern Minnesota, Iowa, southeast Nebraska, Wyoming and Wisconsin.   The blizzard warnings to the west in Wyoming and Nebraska will expire by noon today.  As the storm moves northeastward across northern Illinois into southern Michigan by Friday morning, it will produce heavy snow ranging from 8 to 14 inches with locally higher amounts across Iowa, southern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.  There is also a Winter Storm Warning in West Virginia for 6 to 12 inches with up to 18 inches above 3,000 ft. elevation.  Heavy rain will fall across Pennsylvania and the New York City metro area tonight and on Friday morning.  A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for parts of northwest Pennsylvania and western New York State through Friday morning.  

The following are total snowfall forecasts for individual cities for this storm:

Madison, WI: 12 to 18"
Eau Claire, WI: 4 to 8" 
Grand Rapids, MI:  1 to 3" 
Gaylord, MI: 8 to 14"
Des Moines, IA: 6 to 14"
Waterloo, IA: 6 to 14" 
Fort Wayne, IN: 1 to 3" 
St. Paul, MN: No snow expected
Rochester, MN: 5 to 10" 
Kansas City, MO: 1 to 3" 
Grant City, MO: 4 to 7" 
Columbus, OH: 2 to 4"  
Wellsville, NY: 8 to 13"
Snowshoe, WV: 6 to 10"+
Charleston, WV: 2 to 4"

Snow totals for this storm so far In Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota include:
IOWA  
STRAWBERRY POINT 12.2   740 AM
VOLGA 11.3   700 AM
EDGEWOOD 10.8   538 AM
ELKADER 6SSW 10.4   830 AM
OELWEIN 9.5   522 AM 
OSTERDOCK 9.0   517 AM
GUTTENBERG 8.5   529 AM
FAYETTE 8.0   700 AM
MONONA 8.0   720 AM
WAUKON 7.0   609 AM
MINNESOTA  

MANTORVILLE 7.0   830 AM
HARMONY 1S 7.0   800 AM
LAKE CITY 7.0   800 AM
OAK CENTER 7.0   0830 AM
WINONA 4SW 7.0   0730 AM
GRAND MEADOW 7.0   0515 AM
WABASHA 6.6   0700 AM
STOCKTON 6.5   0527 AM
THEILMAN 6.2   0830 AM
AUSTIN 6.2   0730 AM
WISCONSIN:
NORTHFIELD 7NNW 12.0   0634 AM
OSSEO 11.2   0644 AM
SINSINAWA 10.0   0830 AM
ALMA CENTER 9.0   0715 AM
CHILI 1SW 9.0   0730 AM
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN 8.1   0646 AM
MONDOVI 8.0   0532 AM
RICHLAND CENTER 1NW 8.0   0830 AM
NELSON 7.0   0845 AM


The storm will move into northern New England on Saturday with a shot of cold air advection in its wake across the Great Lakes and the Northeast that will last through Christmas Day.  There is the possibility of a short wave trough generating enough precipitation so that there could be scattered light snow showers Monday night or Christmas Eve in and around the New York City metro area.  Another storm will produce heavy rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest through this weekend.

The GFS is forecasting a relatively active pattern for the next two weeks across the lower 48 states with cold air/high pressure frequently moving from Canada.  Strong blocking has been evident in recent runs.  A storm forecast for December 27, 2012 more not develop off far off the coast with no precipitation for the East Coast.  The NOA is forecast by the GFS to become more negative in the next 2 weeks.  There should be some snow in the Northeast by the end of the first week of January.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.  Follow George on Twitter.