NAO and the Trend for the Next 16 Days...

The North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NOA) has been running negative since mid-September. The index has turned positive in the past 6 days. The latest 14 day GFS model forecasting indicates that the index is predicted to become negative by this weekend and for the next week to 10 days thereafter. A coastal storm that had been forecast last week for early next week is now forecast to remain weak and move south abd east of the New York City metro area. No jet stream phasing is forecast to occur and the upper-air support remains weak with a broad trough reflected at 500 MB through the weekend. An area of low pressure near Florida now will produce some light rain across the Southeast and will then move northeast through Sunday. Some light rain may fall across coastal sections of the Carolinas this weekend and in the New York City metro area on Monday. High pressure builds in across the Northeast over the next few days producing dry weather through Sunday here in New York. A storm produces rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest this weekend. A series of storms will then move in from the Pacific and will impact this region through most of next week. The long range GFS model is indicating that the coldest air mass of the season will plunge down from Canada into the northern Rockies by next Friday. Strong low pressure will form and track across the Great Lakes producing showers in the Northeast next Sunday with cold air advecting behind the front. Then another storm forms in the Gulf of Mexico and moves northeastward producing snow and rain to the Northeast on Wednesday, November 28th. This forecast will change over the next several days, however, what is important is to look at the overall trend the GFS is forecasting which is stormy conditions in the Pacific Northwest and the coldest air of the season possibly moving into the lower 48 states by the 26th. 

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.