Major Storm Sandy to Make Landfall in New Jersey on Monday...
The latest NHC forecast track for Sandy indicates that the storm is forecast to make a direct hit along the New Jersey coast. A storm surge of 5 to 10 feet is possible along the coast of New York, New Jersey and Long Island. The NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) has noted that this storm will likely have the lowest pressure on record in New Jersey. The models are now in agreement and the European model model is now considered to be the preferred model for the storm's track. Here the the HPC discussion regarding Sandy:
HURRICANE SANDY =============== PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE BY DEFAULT CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z NAM
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE CLOSEST SOLUTION TO THE NHC TRACK, AND PREFERRED BY DEFAULT. FOR CENTRAL PRESSURE, THE WEAKEST SOLUTIONS (THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF) ARE LIKELY CLOSEST TO REALITY, THOUGH THEY WOULD STILL BRING SANDY INTO NEW JERSEY WITH A NEAR-RECORD CENTRAL PRESSURE. MULTI-DAY TRENDS INCREASINGLY FAVOR A LESS EXTREME CENTRAL PRESSURE (WITH THE RANGE IN THE DETERMINISTIC/NON-HURRICANE GUIDANCE NOW BETWEEN 947 AND 957 HPA), WITH THE GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS A CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE 950S HPA. CONSIDERING THE ABOVE, WE FAVOR A CENTRAL PRESSURE NO DEEPER THAN THE UPPER 950S HPA AT LANDFALL...WITH MID 950S HPA EXPECTED AS IT CROSSES THE GULF STREAM MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER (OPC). DEEPER PIECES OF GUIDANCE THAN THE PREFERENCE ARE LIKELY OVERPLAYING THE DEPTH AND DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION, PARTIALLY DUE TO THEIR REDEVELOPMENT OF CENTRAL CONVECTION (SEEN ON THE UKMET JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL ONCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS), WHICH PER NHC SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR ITS CENTER WHICH IS CAUSING ITS CURRENT RESEMBLANCE TO A LARGE OCCLUDED, NON-TROPICAL LOW. SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC CONCERNING THE FUTURE OF SANDY.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
HURRICANE SANDY =============== PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE BY DEFAULT CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z NAM
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE CLOSEST SOLUTION TO THE NHC TRACK, AND PREFERRED BY DEFAULT. FOR CENTRAL PRESSURE, THE WEAKEST SOLUTIONS (THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF) ARE LIKELY CLOSEST TO REALITY, THOUGH THEY WOULD STILL BRING SANDY INTO NEW JERSEY WITH A NEAR-RECORD CENTRAL PRESSURE. MULTI-DAY TRENDS INCREASINGLY FAVOR A LESS EXTREME CENTRAL PRESSURE (WITH THE RANGE IN THE DETERMINISTIC/NON-HURRICANE GUIDANCE NOW BETWEEN 947 AND 957 HPA), WITH THE GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS A CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE 950S HPA. CONSIDERING THE ABOVE, WE FAVOR A CENTRAL PRESSURE NO DEEPER THAN THE UPPER 950S HPA AT LANDFALL...WITH MID 950S HPA EXPECTED AS IT CROSSES THE GULF STREAM MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER (OPC). DEEPER PIECES OF GUIDANCE THAN THE PREFERENCE ARE LIKELY OVERPLAYING THE DEPTH AND DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION, PARTIALLY DUE TO THEIR REDEVELOPMENT OF CENTRAL CONVECTION (SEEN ON THE UKMET JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL ONCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS), WHICH PER NHC SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR ITS CENTER WHICH IS CAUSING ITS CURRENT RESEMBLANCE TO A LARGE OCCLUDED, NON-TROPICAL LOW. SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC CONCERNING THE FUTURE OF SANDY.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
posted by GW at 10/27/2012 07:15:00 AM
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