Update on Tropical Storm Sandy...And Future Pattern
Tropical Storm Sandy is forecast to cross eastern Cuba as a Category 1 hurricane by 2 AM on Thursday. The storm is then forecast to track into the central Bahamas as a strong tropical storm Thursday night and Friday morning. The latest forecast track and wind field is below.
From the National Hurricane Center:
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 76.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
The weather charts indicate that a strong ridge is providing mild weather up and down the East Coast and this pattern is normally conducive for a tropical storm to track northward up the coast. However, the broad trough and upper low that is forecast to dig down across the Ohio Valley and the Northeast is forecast to push Tropical Storm Sandy away from the coast. The GFS model is forecasting some interaction with the upper trough and Sandy which currently suggests some rain will be entrained into the upper trough but the entire storm will be not be completely captured by the upper-level circulation. If the entire storm is captured, then a major storm event can occur in the Northeast and the NYC metro area next week on or before Halloween. Otherwise, if the entire storm is not captured, the relatively strong blocking pattern that is forecast at 500 mb will result in a cutoff low over the Northeast that will generate rain and wind next week. The 84 hour NAM forecast is similarly indicating that the upper trough will interact with or phase in with the 500 mb circulation from Sandy. Future runs and model comparisons need to be analyzed closely through this weekend. This forecast is likely to change.
From the National Hurricane Center:
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 76.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
The weather charts indicate that a strong ridge is providing mild weather up and down the East Coast and this pattern is normally conducive for a tropical storm to track northward up the coast. However, the broad trough and upper low that is forecast to dig down across the Ohio Valley and the Northeast is forecast to push Tropical Storm Sandy away from the coast. The GFS model is forecasting some interaction with the upper trough and Sandy which currently suggests some rain will be entrained into the upper trough but the entire storm will be not be completely captured by the upper-level circulation. If the entire storm is captured, then a major storm event can occur in the Northeast and the NYC metro area next week on or before Halloween. Otherwise, if the entire storm is not captured, the relatively strong blocking pattern that is forecast at 500 mb will result in a cutoff low over the Northeast that will generate rain and wind next week. The 84 hour NAM forecast is similarly indicating that the upper trough will interact with or phase in with the 500 mb circulation from Sandy. Future runs and model comparisons need to be analyzed closely through this weekend. This forecast is likely to change.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
posted by GW at 10/24/2012 10:38:00 AM
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