Models Indicating Weaker Storm Monday and Tuesday But There Will be Snow...

The latest GFS, NAM, etc. models are indicated a storm pattern similar to the one we had on Wednesday here in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. However, the upper level flow although similar appears to be drier with less moisture being drawn into it as the upper vortex over eastern Canada and New England phases in with the shortwave diving down across the Midwest forming one closed or cutoff low in the upper levels (see 500 mb forecast map above). With less moisture to work with (there will some be tapping of Gulf moisture) this storm will be weaker and follow a more northeastward track south and east of Cape Cod. There is also less upper-level divergnence that results in vertical motion, more snow and stronger development. The forecast pressure is 992 MB which is about 15 or 20 mb higher than the Wednesday storm in which Atlantic City measured a pressure of 28.99 inches in the early afternoon. This will be a faster moving storm, hence less time for snow to fall and there could be some mixing with rain or sleet especially eastern LI and the Jersey Shore. The thicknesses are low enough to support all snow and the 0C 850 mb isotherm is forecast to be well south of NYC and Long Island. It looks as if 2 to 4 inches or perhaps 4 to 8 inches could occur in the NYC tri-state region from this storm.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com. George is also a meteorologist with Cablevision News 12.