Arthur to Graze Coast South and North Carolina on Friday
The first Atlantic tropical storm of the season formed off the east coast of Florida this week. The storm is expected to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane as it moves northeastward grazing the Outer Banks of North Carolina Friday morning. A strong upper-trough and cold front will push the storm out to sea with minimal effects across the Northeast on Friday and Saturday. The storm will move into Nova Scotia on Sunday. The sustained winds are currently 60 mph and the storm is located about 275 south of Charleston, South Carolina. The storm is moving to the north at 6 mph but is expected to turn to the northeast later today and on Thursday.
Here is the latest bulletin from the NHC:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
NUMBER6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL AL012014
800 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR CLOSELY MONITORED BY NOAA AND AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
TO FLAGLER BEACH
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF
BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS
TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED
FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
IN THIS CASE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH
OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST
OF FLORIDA TODAY...PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
TONIGHT...MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA ON THURSDAY AND APPROACH THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...
95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41010...
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF ARTHUR...RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A
GUST OF 63 MPH...101 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM
AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED
WITH ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
Here is the latest bulletin from the NHC:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
NUMBER6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL AL012014
800 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR CLOSELY MONITORED BY NOAA AND AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
TO FLAGLER BEACH
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF
BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS
TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED
FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
IN THIS CASE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH
OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST
OF FLORIDA TODAY...PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
TONIGHT...MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA ON THURSDAY AND APPROACH THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...
95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41010...
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF ARTHUR...RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A
GUST OF 63 MPH...101 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM
AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED
WITH ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. Visit our website at WrightWeather.com. Follow George Wright on Twitter @gwweather.
posted by GW at 7/02/2014 10:46:00 AM
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