Strong Coastal Storm a Possibility Next Tuesday and Wednesday in the Northeast...

Current model runs are indicating that a storm will develop near Cape Hatteras next Tuesday and will intensify producing snow and strong winds from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. When the storm strengthens and the path that it follows will determine where the greatest impacts are felt. Presently, the models are keeping the heaviest snowfall just to the east and southeast of New York City with the heaviest snowfall occurring over eastern Long Island to Cape Cod but this can change as better sampling of the data occurs this weekend. The major impulse for this storm is currently located over the Arctic tundra of Canada.  Strong winds and coastal flooding will also occur with this storm. The pressure in this storm is forecast to reach as low as 960 millibars or 28.33 inches when the storm is off the coast of Maine.  This is the extended discussion from the NWS WPC:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

112 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014

VALID 12Z TUE MAR 25 2014 - 12Z SAT MAR 29 2014

...NOR'EASTER TO BOMB OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY...

THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW WHICH HAS PERIODICALLY REACHED INTO NORTH AMERICA SINCE JANUARY SEEMS DESTINED FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS STILL LOW ACROSS THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD BLAST DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE SHORT RANGE, THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND ICE WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HERALDING TUESDAY'S OUTBREAK. IT SEEMS THAT THE CLIPPER WILL GAIN ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO SIPHON SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SLIGHT NEGATIVE-TILT TO THE CLIPPER WILL SET UP A DUMBBELLING WITH THE GULF ENERGY TOWARD EVENING TUESDAY SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND THE ATLANTIC "BENCHMARK" OF 40N/70W. THIS BINARY INTERACTION--OR FUJIWHARA EFFECT--IS A PARTICULARLY ENERGIZING PHENOMENON. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SUB-970MB SURFACE CYCLONE IS LIKELY NEAR THE BENCHMARK AFTER THE BOMBING PHASE. HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE BOMBING OCCURS IS CRITICAL FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THE EARLIER/FARTHER SOUTHWEST, THE GREATER THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC ALL THE WAY THROUGH MAINE. IF THE BOMBING IS LATER/FARTHER NORTHEAST, EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WOULD SUFFER THE WORST EFFECTS. EITHER WAY, WINDS LOOK REMARKABLY STRONG ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDE OF THE TIGHT CIRCULATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY--A MAJOR CONCERN FOR COASTAL AND OFFSHORE INTERESTS FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND TO DOWN EAST MAINE.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. Visit our website at WrightWeather.com. Follow George Wright on Twitter @gwweather.