Snow for Friday Night and Saturday for Mid-Atlantic States and NYC?

Weather forecast models (NAM, GFS, ECMWF, UKMET) continue to hold the heaviest snow and rain to the south of the NYC metropolitan area on Friday night and Saturday as of 7 PM Wednesday, February 4, 2010. The latest NAM solution has shifted the heaviest forecast snow to the south of NYC across southern NJ, southeast PA, MD, DE and VA. There could be a foot or more in these areas except close to the ocean where some mixed precipitation could occur. Right now this storm looks like it will produce a heavy snowfall from central NJ southward.

As I mentioned on earlier posts, the track for yesterday's storm and the one last Saturday was to the south of the NYC metro area. A closed low or cyclonic vortex over eastern Canada and dry, strong surface high pressure over New England can prevent coastal storms from tracking up the coast which looks as if this is forecast to happen in this case once again. There is plenty of moisture, it just looks as if the snow shield will remain to the south of northern NJ and NYC/Long Island once again.

More on this storm later this week.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com.