NAM Model Continues to Keep Snow to South of NYC Area..Heavy Snow Philadelphia, DC, and Baltimore...

The progressive runs from the NAM weather forecasting model for the past 24 hours have continued the sharp cut-off of the northern edge of snow shield across central and southern NJ, just to the south of NYC and Long Island. The 12 Z or 7 PM run this morning brought heavier snow to central NJ and NYC. The 18 Z or 1 PM and 00 Z or 7 PM NAM forecasts have suppressed the heavier snow to the south in response to the cutoff low and dry northwest flow across New England. As I pointed out earlier this week, this cutoff low over eastern Canada has a big effect on coastal storms in some cases and normally results in dry weather for the Northeast has demonstrated this week. One NAM model bias is that it does not push the precipitation far enough north in some cases. However, the other models, UKMET, European, GFS, etc. continue to keep the storm well south of the 40 lat. /70 long. benchmark which is the lat. and long. where a coastal storm normally produces the most snow for the NYC metro area. South of this location, the storm usually tracks too far away for a major snowstorm. More on this storm later today.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com. George is also a meteorologist with News 12 Cablevision.