Weaker Trend Continues for This Week's Storm in NYC Area...

As indicated in my earlier posts, the models continued to weaken the weather system (see NAM and GFS output above for Friday at 1 PM or the 66 hour forecast) that is forecast to bring rain and snow to the NYC metro area on Thursday and Friday (New Years Eve and New Years Day 2010). The forecast is now for little upper-air support and phasing in of the northern and southern branches of the jet stream or positive vorticity advection/upper level divergence when the storm is over eastern Carolina. The storm does intensify when it moves into eastern New England with significant snows in Maine and coastal New Hampshire and Massachusetts. All models including the European runs indicate another blast of cold air for early next week. The models are trending for a seasonably cold or below normal start to the new year. The cold air will extend across the upper Midwest, the Great Lakes, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states.

The GFS is forecasting a major cold air mass that will penetrate the deep south on January 5, 2010 through January 8, 2010 resulting in at or below freezing temperatures across the Gulf Coast as well as central and northern Florida. The Northeast during this period and beyond remains cold and relatively dry. No major storms are forecast for the NYC area by the GFS through January 11, 2010.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting. Our website is WrightWeather.com.