Colder Pattern in the Northeast but Not Brutually Cold!

As expected, the upper-air flow continues to indicate that colder air will be funneled down from Canada across the upper Midwest and the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The flow however, will not be extremely cold but it will be seasonably cold with highs in the 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s in the NYC metropolitan area for the next week or so. The pattern is forecast to be relatively dry. The maps above indicate the 500 mb flow for the NAM and GFS weather forecasting models. There is not a deep blocking low or cyclonic flow setting up in eastern Canada which is one of the reasons the cold spell will not be brutally cold. In 120 hours, the GFS (3rd map from the top) indicates a closed cyclonic flow (counterclockwise) or vortex at 500 mb setting up across southeast Canada and New England. This will keep storms away and will result in mainly dry weather. Of course this could all change considerably in 120 hours. The next chance for light snow or flurries will be on Sunday as a coastal system grazes the NYC area as it passes to our east (bottom map, GFS surface foreast).

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com.